No. 10 (21) April 2003

CONFERENCE “RUSSIA AND CAR: WATER PROBLEM AND COOPERATION POLICIES”

Institute of CIS countries jointly with company “Intervod”, Voluntary Economic Society of Russia, Foundation of ideas 21, UNESCO Committee of RF under support of UN Development Program and UN Information Center organized this Conference. It was held on April 9, 10 in city administration building of Moscow on New Arbat. Moscow mayor Yu.M. Luzhkov and significant number of well-known public and political actors of Russia as well as CAR representatives: from Uzbekistan – 8, Kazakhstan – 7, Tajikistan – 5, including Deputy Minister of Reclamation and Water Management M. Khamidov, Kyrgyzstan – 1, took part in conference opening ceremony. Prof. V.A. Dukhovny and directors of BWO “Syrdarya” M.Kh. Khamidov and BWO “Amudarya” Yu.Kh. Khudajbergenov represented SIC ICWC.

CIS Institute Director K.F. Zatulin opened meeting briefly describing significance attributed by Russia to this project.
N.S. Grishenko – Director of Institute "Intervod" – gave description of basic project provisions in that version submitted in 1986 for consideration of Expertise Commission of USSR Gosplan.

Then K.F. Zatulin announced greeting of UN Deputy Secretary General Mr. Desai, who noted that UN with big attention and appraisal considers this conference as one of benchmarking measure, which should be in 2003 under symbol of “International Fresh Water Year”.

Y. Luzhkov presented own vision of this problem, emphasized its exclusive importance both for region countries and Russia. “Utilization of Siberian rivers flow is demanded much, and this will allow organizing joint use of excessive water resources of Russia with great potential of land and labor resources of Central Asia for common well-being”, - he stated.
He also expressed believe that namely this issue will be one of discussion subjects at Governmental Council on water problem that should gather in April under presidency V.V. Putin. “We must clearly understand, - Luzhkov said – that work was stopped in conditions of destroy and reconstruction, and the latter, like its leaders was oriented only on short-term problems. Today peoples of Central Asia turned out to be in hardest economic and ecological situation. Population is growing, used water amount is decreasing. And Russia can’t see this indifferently as this can reflect on Russia itself.
Further ignorance of project threatens transfer of millions tons of dust and salt, desertification of Siberia south part, Aral Sea lost as global climate regulator on all Euro-Asian continent. Enormous number of disable population will migrate to Russia and create certain demographic pressure. This project will provide transformation of our eastern policy and real implementation of irrigation development in south of Siberia and Kazakhstan, and simultaneously sharp strengthening of demographic and urban building meaning of all Siberia south part.

We pay little attention to this most important part of our country and today we must consider this project as independent economical and integral program, which should be fulfilled by transnational consortium, which will be based and develop, mainly, in south part of Siberia and Ural. In future project will give great development of production forces. Now CAR countries are separating from Russia. Similar problems should be considered in light of political forces and global changes.”

First Deputy Minister of Natural Resources, water sector head V.M. Tarasov stated that “we are interested in development of cooperation with all Central-Asian countries. CAR countries declared about ICWC formation 11 years ago, they have demonstrated that they are able to work jointly, amicably, and in organized manner. We are ready to take part in the work of this commission, maybe, as monitors. When time of transfer project implementation will come, we will be able to be direct participants. There is no doubt that transfer project – as it was in that time – has its positive and negative aspects, but we can’t abandon it. There are many issues, but I am sure that we should start their discussion calmly, and we can’t do otherwise.”

Deputy of State Duma S.Yu. Glazyev said: “We are interested much in use of great economical opportunities around Ob, which are for transport, flood control, hydropower development, and I should say that already today State Duma concerns about growth of prices for electric power. Exactly this will be benchmark for development of power opportunities of Siberia south part jointly with North Kazakhstan to obtain cheap power as basis of great project development. ”
Ex-minister, presently Director IWP of RAS, V.I. Danilov-Danilyan sharply criticized this project. In his opinion Russia has no money to deal with this project “and we don’t know anything, - as he stated, - about ecological effects of this transfer and basing on principle “don’t harm” it would be better not to touch this water than turn it in other direction.”
Y. Israel – one of the participants of the events, which happened around transfer in last decades – noted that in general Academy of Science of Russian Federation supports Luzhkov’s proposal, and idea to proceed works seems to be attractive to Academy of Science. Taking into account that the project was rejected on ecological reasons, it is necessary to continue researches, moreover serious researches should be organized, and financial means should be found.

Prof. V.A. Dukhovny showed that necessity of additional water transfer to region has been objective reality since 2025. “Climate change forecasts show that by 2050 in Central Asia river flow decline minimum by 5 km3 per year is expected, in the same time in Siberia Ob flow increase by 3% (15 km3 of water per year) will be observed. Nature gives opportunity to balance soundly that climatic changes, which we have already provoked in global scale.

Special attention should be paid to social-economic grounding. Financial decision can be found, if countries participating in transfer – Russia and Central Asia agree about organization of integrated agricultural market with limited access from outside and specific mutual subsiding of agriculture within mentioned 6 countries. However this will demand very clear cooperation with elimination of all custom, tax, and boundary restrictions as well as sufficiently severe conditions of countries interaction.”

Academician O.F. Vasilyev loudly criticized position of Danilov-Danilyan: “Idea of flow transfer has full right for implementation.”

K.F. Zatulin: “We consider Russia in present state as result of not quite sequent globalization. If we want Russia start to develop Siberia seriously, as Lomonosov said, transfer project must be needed. Russia must legalize itself in Central Asia, if it thinks about future. Indeed, challenge was thrown out to all regional forces. Therefore it is required to identify exactly our positions both from the technical point of view and political and economical. And this demands specific efforts not only from Russia, but also CAR countries.”

P.A. Polad-zade expressed satisfaction from opinion exchange. Everybody understand that region has no water reserves. From three possible alternatives – reconstruction, management improvement, and additional water transfer only two are real. Now we should say not about old project, but new – in new social-economic conditions.

T.T. Sarsembekov (Kazakhstan) reported that Kazakhstan is interested in project and offered to develop “Concept of interrelations between CAR countries and Russia”, which will define objectives and tasks of project, work out legal policy and make up plan of actions and specific tasks in time.

N.K. Kayumov (Director of Economic Research Institute of Tajikistan, Deputy Minister of Economy) underlined project importance from Tajikistan view basing on needs of Zerafshan transfer to Syrdarya basin, prospects of Afghanistan demand increase as well as development of integrated processes.

N.I. Zelentsova (RAS Presidium) marked importance of water supply sustainability as criterion of sustainable development. She proposed to organize joint working group.

U.V. Abdullayev ("Uzgipromeliovodkhoz") described water situation in the republic and demonstrated that designed measures on water management development including 3 reservoirs allow compensating 50% of water deficit. He emphasized project significance for region.

K.B. Norkin (Analytical Unit, Moscow) clarified working supposition of Russia in this project basing on China transfer experience. He proposed to adopt from Chinese people two approaches: step-by-step project implementation and gradual correction of all decisions; costs distribution: to adopt – 20% at the expense of budget of countries, 35% - local budgets, and 45% - water users. Sense of long-term costs is in creation of powerful capacities of future development, basis of incomes not only for agriculture, but also entire economic sector, increase of taxes inflow. He proposed to create working group that will search ways of maximum benefits obtaining from this project for all partners.

One people supported this project: A.E. Askarin (Gidroprojekt), L.Y. Guseva (Strategic Research Institute of Kazakhstan), N.N. Mikheyev, L.N. Dmitriyev (Kazgiprovodkhoz), D. Ryskulov et al.

Academician N.R. Khamrayev declared that given project is rather Russian than Centra-Asian – Uzbekistan will obtain just 5-6 km3 of water downstream.

P.A. Polad-zade in his second speech underlined that, unfortunately, Russia fights not with water disaster prevention, but with their effects. Therefore Ministry on Accidents rather deals with water than water organizations. There is no qualified organization on water resources management in Russia. It is likely that addressing this problem will provide strengthening water resources management in Russia.

In A. Chamkin’s opinion (MAI), “there is enough means in the world to enable such big-scaled projects. They are in Russia too. There is opportunity of transferring people, capital, and resources, tendency to increase of national interests meeting can be observed. But “political turbulence” and uncertainty of economical interests of society, separate groups, and decision-makers hamper equitable water re-distribution of for the favor of mankind wellbeing. Political interests of Russia and Central Asia require demonstrating that countries concern about their people welfare and simultaneously more equitable distribution of acquired goods and national wealth. It is important to Russia to show own abilities to the world – and just this project can be demonstrative one! For this purpose ideology, which can change community behavior on base of images perceived by people and adopted by politicians.”

Gorelik – Director of UN Information Center noted that concept is good. UN considers water as cooperation catalyzer.
V.I. Antonov (Uzvodprojekt) showed irrigated agriculture degradation in region and Uzbekistan. 7 mln. ha of lands in Uzbekistan are ready to adopt water from Russia, but "today Russia is rather interested in water than we".
A.Y. Khusainov, President of company "Rusto Rosti", underlined that businessmen of textile, engineering, chemical-technological industries concern much about this project. They should be involved in the project.

Prof. A.L.Velikanov, Deputy Director of IWP RAS, emphasized that it is unnecessary to turn back to old project, but compare new conditions and new social-economic importance and political assessment. Specific approaches to public awareness formation based on commerce, management by opinions, and participatory principle should be created, “it is demanded to use both positive project experience and its discredit experience”.

Final discussion of conference statement agreed about necessity of its revision regarding project of integrated use of water, land, and labor resources of Siberia, Ural, and Central Asia, emphasizing radical revision of basic provisions (social, economical, financial, and institutional), formation of stakeholder groups, and target audiences as well as arrangement of coordination program on given issue; to use UN support for broad involvement of international political and financial circles.