No. 2 (45) January 2004

TRAINING SEMINAR WITHIN NATO PROJECTS SFP-974357 AND SFP-974101 ON PRIARALIE PROBLEMS

Training seminar on the Aral Sea and Priaralie problems was held on January 15-16, 2004 in ICWC Training center with the participation of specialists from Central Asia as well as Doctor Chris de Wispelaere, NATO “Science for Peace” Director, and Prof. Pierre Chevallier, consultant from France. Officials of the USA State Department took part in the seminar as well.

The results of activities within NATO “Science for Peace” international projects SFP-974357 и SFP-974101 were heard along with presentations of the current activities within INTAS-Aral and INTAS-Kazakh Priaralie projects that enabled to integrate:

• the Academies of Sciences of Uzbekistan and Karakalpakstan; Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Sciences, SIC ICWC, SANIIRI, Uzgidroingeo, Scientific Research Institute for Forestry of Uzbekistan;
• Disciplines: ecology, hydrology, economics, information science, biology, mathematics, forest reclamation;
• Western European (Holland, Belgium, France) science and former Soviet school of Central Asian countries;
• Practice, science and projection.

The participants noted that scientific purposes of NATO projects had been achieved completely, in particular:

• Situation, arising in South Priaralie in regard to the development of desertification processes under the influence of the Aral Sea level fall and recession, had been investigated;
• Assessment of existing infrastructure on the Amudarya delta watering and comparison of alternative solutions had been carried out;
• Methodical approaches to impartial selection of technical solutions, providing rational and effective accounting of social and ecological requirements had been worked out;
• Ecological requirements for the system of water bodies in the Amudarya delta had been developed and approved;
• Data base on ecological disaster zone had been formed;
• Complex of models for development and management of water bodies South Priaralie had been prepared, and, based on it, “Decision-making support system (DSS)” had been developed;
• Recommendations on wetlands management organizational structure had been made.

Owing to performing the project the following new technologies of the European Union were attracted:

• Remote sensing and GIS technologies on basis of ERDAS, IDRISI complexes;
• MIKE 11 - program complex for modeling water bodies;
• Horiba - device for defining parameters of water salinity (Japan);
• GPS devices for identifying coordinates (Germany);
• Wetlands management organizational principles.

The results of activities:

On GIS and remote sensing:

• Database on Priaralie was created jointly with SFP-974101 Project;
• Satellite photographs for 2000 were purchased, processed and set into database;
• Landscape-soil map of Priaralie, made in 1992 by SANIIRI, was digitized and compared with analogue, made by SFP-974101 Project in 2000;
• Unstable landscapes subject to protection were discovered;
• Bathymetric characteristics of all existing and future water bodies in Priaralie were made up and set into database;
• Dynamics of wetlands and lakes in the period of change in inflow to delta was evaluated;
• Character of Mezhdurechie reservoir sedimentation and its dynamics were defined;
• Alternative solutions were compared with area of ecologically unstable landscapes an socially stressed zones.

The results of scientific substantiation:

1. Within the territory of South Priaralie two kinds of natural processes that condition dynamics of unstable landscapes, representing natural danger and depending on further direction of anthropogenic activity, occur:

• Desertification of former sea bottom and on-going transport of mobile types of alluvial and proalluvial sediments with formation of barkhan and ridge landscapes;
• Covering of large tracts of earlier deserted lands by solonchak and desert ephemeral vegetation and their stabilization, especially in zones, being under influence of periodical or continual moistening, and also man-made forestation.

2. As a result of this interaction, total unstable landscape area within territory, intended for building, reduced, but its reduction was accompanied by creation of such a natural productivity that could considerably impact on socio-economic position of living population.

3. Though water bodies in Priaralie are of great socio-economic and natural importance, their stability is under influence of sharply changing and weakly managed water inflow to delta, undefined regime of which can not be taken by existing configuration and parameters of hydro structures either in low water availability period or in the period of floods.

Low water years, especially paired years (2000-2001), have a destructive effect upon whole biosystem that almost entirely disappear in this period in the main production directions (fish, musk-rat, reed) and even in existence of migrating birds. At the same time, under influence of subsequent increasing inflow the condition of water bodies and their biological productivity keep ability to be restored.

4. Choosing decisions on delta watering as means for struggle against desertification should be be focused on long-term measures, aimed not only at present needs, but also at:

• Accounting dynamics of natural flow fluctuations, complicated by the influence of water abstraction in river upstream to recover maximum water losses and save biological productivity in the context of low water availability;
• Need for sustainable operation of water bodies in socially stressed zones;
• Stabilizing unstable landscapes, located near used lands and residential territories down to the limit;
• Reducing socio-ecological damage as maximum as possible within available economic means.

5. Ecological requirements for water bodies and all the complex of nature conservation structures of delta were worked out and approved.

The results of modeling:

1. Set of models was created for:

• Forecasting surface inflow to delta;
• Relation of collector-drainage flow with inflow to delta;
• Calculating water bodies parameters;
• Dynamics of reed growth, fish and musk-rat productivity depending on water bodies parameters;
• MIKE 11 complex of models, supplemented by a set of models for productivity and transformation of water bodies in GAMS;
• Calculations of hydraulic structures and water bodies in delta were carried out and their optimum sizes were determined for projection;
• DSS complex was created;
• Environmental release parameters was estimated as 4.9 km3 for low water years and 8.5-9 km3 for average water years

2. Based on model complex and design delta infrastructure costs, scheme was recommended that would allow:

• To effectively manage 67.5% of coming flow in multi-year inflow series;
• To provide water bodies biologically active area of 180,000 ha in delta;
• To increase employment by about 9,000 people in disaster zone;
• To provide continual water supply for maintenance of additional water bodies with area of 70,000 ha and maintenance of constant water surface in about 110,000 ha area of existing water bodies;
• To increase stable landscapes in area of 420,000 ha;
• To bring production and processing of fish in delta to 2,040 tons, musk-rat to 130,000 heads;
• To achieve payback of complex during 16 years.

The seminar participants approved activities within NATO SFP-974357 and SFP-974101 Projects and recommended disseminating their results in the form of monograph to supervisory and project organizations, related to decision-making on South Priaralie.

It is expedient to intensify projection and construction of a complex of nature conservation structures using proposed measures and prepared materials. It requires to continue work on an agreement on ecological balance in the Aral Sea basin, legalize thereafter an agreement between the Aral Sea basin countries, and environmental release, defined by project and accepted in calculations of GEF Project Component A, and ensure the implementation of measures for its guaranteed supply to delta.

The participants of the meeting proposed to appeal to the Uzbek Government with request to initiate donors for assigning a loan under preferential terms on creating nature conservation complex in the Amudarya delta, based on the decision of the Heads of the states dated September 11, 1994 “About the concept on solving problem of Priaralie socio-economic and ecological development”.

Taking into account that significant databases on the Aral Sea and Priaralie have been accumulated in both the projects and current North Priaralie Project, there is an insistent need to continue monitoring on the Aral complex for joint use by all the concerned parties.

Scientific researches on the development of technologies for creating protective a forestation on dried Aral Sea bottom were approved and recommended to be continued.

The goals and tasks of the project, proposed by the Kazakh Government on the Syrdarya delta, including development of hydro engineering infrastructure system (activities, measures, facilities), technical and economic grounding, answering to IWRM principal requirements in the Syrdarya delta, were supported. The system should guarantee ecological sustainability in combination with rational use of biological resources in North Priaralie and reduce ecological and socio-economic damage done by unstable regime of discharges over river.

The results of researches should serve as a basis for international investment proposals. The participation of the public and water users will intensify the taken measures and help to create a “Committee for water resources management in the Amudarya delta” and the similar one for the Syrdarya delta in the future.