Identification of Future Water Needs in the CA Countries and Development of Optimization Simulation Models for Efficient Utilization of River Potential in the Aral Sea Basin

Client: AO Gidroproyekt Institute

Contractor: SIC ICWC

Implementation period: 24.09.-01.11.2021

Project objective: Identifying the water needs in the CA countries by 2030 and assessing the agricultural and industrial production growth through efficient water use.

Work done:

1. Analyzed water situation in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB).

2. Assessed water needs in ASB countries by 2030, including forecast of (1) dynamics of irrigated land area and crop production; (2) population growth; (3) industrial production and unit water consumption growth.

3. Drawn transboundary water balance of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins and regimes of large reservoir hydroschemes for present and the future until 2030.

4. Completed:

• assessment of effectiveness of current interstate water management;
• assessment of future interstate water management scenarios by 2030, including: (1) assessment of water resources: natural cycles and consideration of climate change impact; (2) assessment of scenarios of river flow regulation by large reservoir hydroschemes: energy generation regime, energy-irrigation regime; (3) hydropower balance, economic assessment of deficit and excess generation of hydropower; (4) future river water balances: assessment of water shortage and river water losses, assessment of irrigated crop production losses; (5) scenarios of Roghun operation (beyond 2030);
• alculation of Nurek and Toktogul HPP operation modes (current state, energy-irrigation and energy scenarios for dry years of 2021-2030);
• assessment of hydropower generation by the Naryn and Vakhsh cascades, hydropower balance (demand-generation), cost estimate of losses and surpluses of electricity;
• assessment of scenarios of flow regulation by Rogun in combination with the Nurek HPP regime - optimistic energy-irrigation and pessimistic energy regimes;
• calculation of river water balances for the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins, including tributaries, river reaches of the Naryn, Karadarya, Chirchik, Syr Darya (to the Aral Sea), Vakhsh, Panj, Kafirnigan, Surhandarya, Amu Darya (to the Aral Sea);
• calculation of reservoir operation regimes (Toktogul, Andizhan, Charvak, Bakhri Tojik, Shardara, Koksaray, Nurek, Tyuyamuyun), taking into account river water balances;
• assessment of water availability, water shortage, and losses of crop production against operation regimes of large reservoir hydroschemes.