Models

The Aral Sea Basin Management Model (ASBmm)

The main objective of the Aral Sea Basin Management Model (ASBmm) is to enable decision-makers to evaluate correctness and timeliness of the made decision, and also to show, what consequences it can cause.

This is achieved by “playing out” various versions of development of Aral Sea basin countries separately as well as the entire region for defining the possibility of economic and social development in the future, taking into account available water resources use and Aral Sea and Priaralie ecological requirements satisfaction.

Aral Sea Basin Management Model (www.asbmm.uz)

ASBmm – the Aral Sea basin model is unique in terms of completeness and coverage of processes and tendencies that take place in the national water sectors in the basin.

ASBmm software is an information-software system developed by IHE-UNESCO & SIC ICWC, which includes a set of models and DB coupled through the user interface.

The ASBmm software consists of:

• The Water Allocation Model (WAM) is a specialized computer tool for modeling processes of flow regulation by large transboundary reservoir hydrosystems with HEPS for the main rivers in the Aral Sea basin, for allocation surface water between the so-called water-management districts (planning zones) and aquatic ecosystems (wetlands in Prearalie, Aral); the model performs water and salt balance and hydropower computations for Syrdarya and Amudarya basins, based on water-management scenarios on monthly basis up to 2035; the model is developed using GAMS technology to enable solution of the optimization problem of water management, thus contributing to a right choice of water-management decisions;
• The Planing Zome Model (PZM) is a professional software to simulate the required water use in given water-management district (domestic sector, agriculture, industry); using climatic and water-management scenarios by 2035, the model computes water availability of given planning zones and agricultural production losses as a result of water scarcity, produces water-management balances of planning zones in connection with a river network (WAM model), including water and salt balances of irrigated areas, estimation of return water; considers local resources, including groundwater, and flow regulation by local reservoirs;
• The Socio-Economic Model (SEM) is a software to build and assess water-management, agricultural and environmental development scenarios for the Aral Sea basin by 2035 in connection with the national socio-economic development scenarios for riparian countries; the model operates jointly with WAM, PZM;
• A package of aquatic ecosystem model is a software to compute the water-salt balances of the Aral Sea (northern, eastern and western bowls of the sea), wetlands of North and South Prearalie and the Arnasay ecosystem and to estimate water requirements and ecosystem productivity;
• The database - an information-analytical system, which is a set of data and a body of information technologies for data storage, processing, receipt and representation for user; it consists of three blocks: block A – stores retrospective (historical) information; block B – stores primary input data for the models grouped by scenario (climatic, agricultural, water-management, environmental, socio-economic) and by option of hydrological series (water availability); and, block C – stores secondary information on scenarios and modeling results.
• Control routine, which integrates the models and enables data routing and transforming and organizing data exchange, as well as controlling information flows through the web-interface; this routine synchronizes the information flows controlled by different users;
• The user web-interface allows the user to interact with PC; the interface offers a number of possibilities: model adjustment, data correction, user scenario building, iteration model runs, and result interpretation; the simulation results can be viewed through Internet in tabular and graphic forms, as well as visualized in a mapping block (color indexing in space and time) for a number of parameters.

ASBmm PopVersion

If you are a journalist, student or a novice in hydrology, hydraulic engineering or energy who wants to know about characteristics, problems and prospects of development in the Aral Sea basin, you should use the ASBmm – PopVersion Software.

The package ASBmm PopVersion is developed in such a way so that to make the analysis of basin’s water resources and problems for the future a simple and visual process; the package is integrated with Internet and gives a comprehensive view on present and future conditions in the Aral Sea basin; considers socio-economic, environmental and climatic aspects; builds alternative basin development scenarios and water resources management strategies.

The water allocation model (WAM) for ASBmmРорVersion includes:

• hydrological and water-management schemes of Syrdarya and Amudarya river basins that are realized in form of graphs describing flow regulation and distribution network (they will be used in establishing structural blocks of computer programs),
• algorithms of functioning of the water distribution system, of flow regulation by reservoir hydrosystems with HEPS, target functions (control criteria) and constraints (initial and boundary conditions) as a first approximation allowing the efficient solution of flow distribution and regulation problem

ASBmm ExpVersion

If you are an expert in the water sector area and water and energy resources use who is interested to know about alternative water sector development scenarios in riparian countries of the Aral Sea basin, with consideration of socio-economic, environmental, energy and climatic factors, you should use the ASBmm – ExpVersion Software.

The package ASBmm ExpVersion is developed in such a way so that to enable building the user’s Project (a set of scenarios and controls); due to the flexible interface and modular architecture, the user’s work on selection and correction of data (i.e. building a scenario) is limited to elementary consecutive operations leading to the goal to be sought – comparison of alternative scenarios and searching for effective, adaptative decisions on water management; the models within ASBmm ExpVersion are integrated through a special web-interface, which helps you to solve complex problems in accessible way; the whole package program logic is located on a server.

For users interested in getting a result – a set of applied problems solvable through the ASBmm ExpVersion includes a long-term (up to 2035) forecasting of hydrological and water-management conditions in the basin, including options of rates of streamflow (with account of natural hydrological cycles and probable climate change) and future (in time) and spatial (by basin, water-management district) development of national water sectors in riparian countries (socio-economic and political conditions forming water demands and water management strategies); comprehensive (integrated) study, by the user, of alternative scenarios and consequences of management in order to identify effects and damages and assess basin and national capacities of riparian countries.

The planning zone model (PZM) in the ASBmm ExpVersion consists of water-management and economic elements. In includes the blocks for computation of required water use, irrigated area’s water balance, agricultural production, as well as algorithms for computing drainage flow, agricultural production losses under water shortage conditions and for economic assessment of agricultural production and product losses due to associated effects. The PZ model should consider: supply from a river network (which is included in the water allocation model), local water resources of PZ, flow regulation by reservoirs (not included in WAM), groundwater sources (abstraction), and non-agricultural water demand (industry, including thermal power, and drinking water-supply).