Model for assessment of potential conflict in the water-environment sphere of region

The model contains the following environmental objects:

• The river sections, which need additional ecological flow;
• The river sections for "discharge" during the flooding period (by means of additional water withdrawal);
• Southern and Northern Priaralie;
• Arnasay-Aidarkul water ecosystem;
• Big and Northern Aral Sea.

The model serves to analyze potential conflicts related to the following impacts:

• Decreasing water delivery to the water ecosystems (environmental objects) during spring and autumn because of energy generation regime of reservoir's waterworks facility with HPS.
• Increasing the autumn-winter floods and related threats of underflooding of water management structures because of energy generation regime of reservoir.

The model's algorithms are able to:

• Assess the extreme discharge in the control stations at the river;
• Assess the sanitary discharge in rivers and canals (assessment of actual and normative water delivery to the canals in the Amudarya lower reaches with aim to satisfy the sanitary needs of Dashoguz, Khorezm and Karakalpakstan);
• Assess water supply of environmental systems (normative water delivery to water ecosystems is determined by special investigation);
• Forecasting hydrochemical composition of river water as well as comparing the normative and calculated water salinity of the Amudarya river;
• Assess a need of additional releases to canals from rivers during a flood period (Syrdarya river - Fergana Valley, middle course; Amudarya river - middle course).
• Assess the reservoir capacity to accumulate a flood water in the lower reaches of rivers;
• Assess capability of reservoir with over-year regulation to overcome water deficit and to meet environmental releases during the low water years and seasons in the upper course of the river by means of reservoir drawdown.

Architecture of analytical tool:

• Calculation algorithm – balance equations defining conditions of river network, ecosystems, and operation modes of large waterworks facilities with HPS; empirical functions.
• Model's realization in MS Excell (linking to general interface).

Assessment of emergency and environmental releases

Assessment of releases impact on decreasing water deficit by reservoir with over-year regulation